HEOR Value Engine
Preventable Outcomes Simulator
Slide inputs → real-time projection of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths, cost savings, and QALYs averted under a Investigational Prophylactic season-long prophylactic. Every scenario is shareable via URL.
Projected assuming target 76% VE
Investigational Prophylactic outputs are not observed clinical data. This engine applies the Phase 2b readout target VE (76%) to a cohort calibrated against 111 US publications. See Data Sources for assumptions.
Scenario
Inputs
Population size50.0M
Baseline vaccine coverage65%
HP2030 target: 70%
Baseline VE (current SOC)36%
27–41% typical range
Investigational Prophylactic uptake40%
Investigational Prophylactic VE (Phase 2b readout)76%
Phase 2b readout: 76%
Hosp rate | infection4.5%
ICU | hospitalization16.8%
Hospitalizations averted
14K
Baseline: 203K
ICU admissions averted
2K
Baseline: 34K
Deaths averted
430
Baseline: 6K
Direct medical $ saved
$224.1M
Baseline: $4.65B
QALYs gained
4K
Baseline: —
PMPM impact
$0.37
Baseline: —
Preventable Events Waterfall
Baseline → SOC prevention → Investigational Prophylactic additional prevention → residual burden
Waterfall bars sum to residual hospitalizations. Investigational Prophylactic sits on top of what current vaccines already avert.
SOC vs Investigational Prophylactic Consequence Pyramids
Side-by-side burden pyramids from Population → Death
SOCconsequence pyramid
50.0M
Population
Infected
Medically attended
ED visit
Hospitalized
ICU
Death
Investigational Prophylacticconsequence pyramid
50.0M
Population
Infected
Medically attended
ED visit
Hospitalized
ICU
Death
Investigational Prophylactic counterfactual assumes 76% target VE at chosen uptake.